Confidential Broker Opinion of Value
APN 5845-002-014 · Eaton Fire Rebuild Site · June 2026
Since 2013, the LAAA Team has closed 460+ multifamily transactions totaling $1.47B+ in volume across Los Angeles, Ventura, and Santa Barbara counties. In the aftermath of the January 2025 Eaton Fire, the team has been at the center of the Altadena rebuild market — advising owners of fire-impacted multifamily land on entitlement pathways, replacement-cost economics, and the scarcity-driven pricing that now defines this submarket.
Our practice is built on disciplined underwriting, the deepest comparable-sales dataset in the submarket, and a marketing engine that reaches every active multifamily and development buyer in Los Angeles. For 2500 Lake Avenue, that means an evidence-based opinion of value anchored in the most recent Altadena land trades and the property's confirmed like-for-like rebuild rights.
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• National Achievement Award — multiple years
• #1 Most Active Multifamily Team in LA County — CoStar 2019-2021
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• 40+ transactions per year — one of SoCal's most active groups
2500 Lake Avenue is a 7,840 SF corner-corridor parcel on Altadena's primary commercial spine, improved before the January 2025 Eaton Fire with a 5,568 SF, 7-unit apartment building (built 1953). The structure was a total loss; what remains is the land — and, critically, a confirmed ministerial right to rebuild the 7 units like-for-like (plus a 10% expansion) with no discretionary hearing.
Because all newly constructed post-fire units are exempt from the LA County Rent Stabilization Ordinance, a rebuilt project underwrites to market rents from day one — a structural advantage the pre-fire building never had. Layered on top is real density optionality: ADUs, the State Density Bonus, and SB 423 each push the buildable count well beyond 7.
The Eaton Fire destroyed an estimated 70%+ of Altadena's rental stock. A shovel-ready, rebuild-entitled multifamily site on Lake Avenue is now one of the scarcest assets in the submarket — and the buyer pool spans merchant developers, owner-rebuilders deploying insurance proceeds, and affordable-housing sponsors.
*Illustrative stabilized value of a completed 7-unit rebuild at a 4.50% cap; see Buildout & Value.
Altadena is an established, affluent unincorporated community at the base of the San Gabriel Mountains, immediately north of Pasadena. The 1-mile trade area carries a median household income of roughly $141,758 and a median home value above $1.09M — a high-income, supply-constrained rental market well before the fire.
The subject fronts Lake Avenue, Altadena's primary north-south commercial corridor, which is actively rebuilding its retail and dining base. The location offers Metro bus access to Pasadena and the wider LA County network, proximity to Huntington Hospital and Kaiser, and is roughly two miles from Caltech and JPL — anchor employers that underpin durable rental demand.
The defining market fact is supply. The January 2025 Eaton Fire destroyed 9,400+ structures and an estimated 1,500+ rental units inside the burn perimeter — on the order of 70% of Altadena's rental stock. The result is acute, multi-year scarcity of deliverable multifamily product, concentrated exactly where the subject sits.
| Location Details | |
|---|---|
| Community | Altadena (Unincorporated LA County) |
| ZIP | 91001 |
| Median HH Income (1 mi) | $141,758 |
| Median Home Value (1 mi) | $1,093,093 |
| Population (1 mi) | 15,872 |
| Anchor Employers | Caltech, JPL, Huntington Hospital |
| Corridor | Lake Ave (primary commercial) |
| Zoning | LCC3 (Limited Commercial) |
| Site | |
|---|---|
| APN | 5845-002-014 |
| Lot Size | 7,840 SF (0.18 ac) |
| Legal | Tract 7832, Lots 21–23, N 24.886' of Lot 24 |
| Zoning | LCC3 (Limited Commercial) |
| Jurisdiction | LA County (Unincorporated) |
| Flood Zone | B / X (Moderate) |
| Pre-Fire Improvements | |
|---|---|
| Year Built | 1953 |
| Building SF | 5,568 (total loss) |
| Units | 7 residential |
| Stories | 2 |
| Est. Unit Mix | 1–2 BR (~795 SF avg) |
| Status | Eaton Fire total loss (Jan 2025) |
| Rebuild Rights | |
|---|---|
| Like-for-Like | 7 units, ministerial |
| SF Entitlement | Up to 5,768 SF (+10%) |
| Discretionary Hearing | None required |
| Permit Pathway | County fire rebuild center (~30-day target) |
| ADU Eligible | Yes (state law) |
| Regulatory | |
|---|---|
| Rent Control (RSO) | Exempt — new construction |
| AB1482 | Exempt (<15 yrs once built) |
| Density Bonus | Up to 50% (state) |
| SB 423 Streamlining | Available (100% affordable) |
| Debris / Site Prep | County / USACE program eligible |
2500 Lake Avenue is zoned LCC3 (Limited Commercial) in unincorporated LA County — a corridor designation that permits multifamily and mixed-use residential development. Four distinct entitlement pathways are available. They are not mutually exclusive in value: a buyer acquires the certainty of the fire-rebuild right today while retaining the optionality to pursue greater density over a ~2-year horizon.
Under the Governor's post-Eaton-Fire executive orders and the County's fire-rebuild program, the owner holds a confirmed ministerial right to rebuild the 7 pre-fire units (up to 5,768 SF, a 10% expansion) with no discretionary hearing, no affordability requirement, and full RSO exemption on the new units. It is the fastest, lowest-risk, lowest-cost path — available now — and is therefore the pathway most buyers will underwrite as their base case, with the higher-density options treated as upside.
| Pathway | Units | Affordability | Approval | Timeline | Entitlement Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Fire Rebuild (like-for-like + 10%) | 7 | None | Ministerial | Now | Lowest — confirmed right |
| 2. By-Right (LCC3 base) | 7–8 | None | By-right / over-the-counter | ~1–2 yrs | Low |
| 3. State Density Bonus (up to 50%) | ~11 | 2–3 Very-Low-Income | By-right (bonus law) | ~2 yrs | Low–Moderate |
| 4. AB 1287 (stacked bonus, up to 100%) | ~14–16 | VLI + Moderate-Income tiers | By-right (bonus law) | ~2 yrs | Moderate |
| Alt: 100% Affordable (SB 423) | 17–18 | All units | Streamlined ministerial | ~2 yrs | Moderate — sponsor-specific |
| Pathway 1 — Fire Rebuild (Base Case) | |
|---|---|
| Authority | Gov. EO / County fire-rebuild program |
| Units | 7 (like-for-like) |
| Max Building SF | 5,768 (+10%) |
| Affordable Set-Aside | None |
| RSO | Exempt (new construction) |
| Why probable | Confirmed right, no hearing, available now |
| Pathway 2 — By-Right LCC3 | |
|---|---|
| Basis | LCC3 base residential density |
| Units | 7–8 |
| Affordable Set-Aside | None |
| Hearing | None (by-right) |
| Use | Multifamily / mixed-use |
| Best for | Larger-unit / for-lease product |
| Pathway 3 — State Density Bonus | |
|---|---|
| Law | Gov. Code §65915 |
| Bonus | Up to 50% over base |
| Units | ~11 (8–9 market + 2–3 VLI) |
| Concessions | Incentives + parking reductions |
| Affordable | 2–3 Very-Low-Income |
| Best for | Merchant developer scaling doors |
| Pathway 4 — AB 1287 | |
|---|---|
| Law | AB 1287 (2023) — stacked bonus |
| Bonus | Up to 100% over base |
| Units | ~14–16 |
| Mechanism | Max VLI tier + additional Moderate-Income units |
| Concessions | Up to 4 incentives + waivers |
| Best for | Maximizing density on the corridor |
Unit counts are planning-level estimates based on LA County post-fire rebuild guidance, LCC3 standards, and California density-bonus law (Gov. Code §65915, as amended by AB 1287). The fire-rebuild right is confirmed; the by-right base density and resulting bonus counts must be verified with LA County Regional Planning. AB 1287's second-tier bonus requires the project to first max the base density-bonus tier before layering additional moderate-income units.
Merchant & Local Developers
Builders seeking a rebuild-entitled, RSO-exempt multifamily site with a clear by-right path and density optionality to 11+ units — the scarcest product in the post-fire market.
Owner-Rebuilders / Insurance-Funded Buyers
Displaced owners and 1031 buyers deploying insurance proceeds into a like-for-like replacement they can rebuild ministerially and hold long-term as market-rate income.
Affordable & Mission-Driven Sponsors
Nonprofit and SB 423 sponsors who can unlock 17–18 units on the parcel — the most aggressive use, and the one that supports the highest per-buildable-unit basis.
The combination of confirmed rebuild rights, RSO exemption, and three distinct density pathways broadens the buyer pool well beyond a typical raw-land trade.
"Construction costs are high right now."
True — Altadena hard costs run $300–$450/SF. The list price reflects that reality: it is set on a land-comp basis, not on a thin merchant residual, and the density-bonus and ADU pathways materially improve the per-unit basis for a developer.
"It's a fire lot — financing and insurance are hard."
The site is eligible for the County / USACE debris program and the streamlined fire-rebuild permit center. Many buyers in this market are insurance-funded or all-cash, which is reflected in the pricing and the broad buyer pool.
"Why pay near the next-door land price for a vacant lot?"
Because the adjacent 2490 Lake parcel traded at ~$115/land SF in December 2025 — and the subject is nearly double the size, carries confirmed 7-unit residential rebuild rights, and offers density upside the next-door commercial lot does not.
"The 7-unit base case barely pencils for a builder."
On a pure merchant-build residual at today's costs, correct. That is exactly why the market clears on scarcity, replacement value, and the 11–18-unit density optionality — not on a base-case-only underwrite. See the residual-land sensitivity in Buildout & Value.
| Address | Use | Lot SF | Bldg SF | Yr | Sale Price | $/Land SF | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2490 Lake Ave (next door) | Commercial / Office | 4,119 | 3,404 | 1930 | $475,000 | $115.32 | Dec 2025 |
| Subject implied at $115.32/land SF (7,840 SF) | $904,109 | — | |||||
2490 Lake Avenue — the parcel immediately adjacent to the subject — closed December 5, 2025 at $475,000 (APN 5845-002-015; buyer: Greenline Housing Foundation, Inc.). It is a 4,119 SF lot improved with a 1930-vintage 3,404 SF commercial/office building. With the structure carrying minimal contributory value in a post-fire commercial corridor, the trade prices effectively as land at ~$115/SF.
This is the single most relevant data point for valuing 2500 Lake: same block, same corridor, same submarket, an arm's-length close just six months ago. The subject is ~90% larger (7,840 vs 4,119 SF) and carries confirmed 7-unit residential rebuild rights — a more valuable entitlement than the next-door commercial use — though larger lots typically carry a modest per-SF discount. Additional Altadena fire-lot land comps are available on request as the post-fire market continues to establish itself.
| Address | Type | Lot SF | Units | List Price | $/Land SF | $/Unit | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2214 N Windsor Ave | 54-unit mixed-use, fully permitted | 46,990 | 54 | $6,250,000 | $133.01 | $115,741 | Active · Permitted |
| 2058–2068 N Lake Ave | 10-unit apartments (standing) | 24,829 | 10 | Contact Broker | — | — | Active · Sotheby's |
| Permitted-site benchmark (2214 N Windsor) | $133.01 | $115,741 | — | ||||
2214 N Windsor Avenue is the market's clearest fully-entitled benchmark: a 46,990 SF site with all LA County planning permits secured for a 54-unit, three-story mixed-use project (42,524 SF building, 80 parking spaces), listed at $6,250,000 — $133/land SF and $115,741 per permitted unit. That per-SF figure carries a full entitlement premium and the economies of a 54-unit project; a smaller, un-entitled rebuild parcel like the subject trades at a discount to it on $/SF but typically a premium on $/buildable unit.
2058–2068 N Lake Avenue is a 10-unit, 6,704 SF apartment building on ~24,829 SF (built 1940), listed via Sotheby's. As a standing income property a few blocks north on the same corridor, it frames Lake Avenue rental demand and unit-scale pricing; its asking price is not publicly posted. Together, the active set brackets the subject: the permitted Windsor site sets the entitlement ceiling, while the next-door 2490 Lake sale sets the land floor.
The 7,840 SF LCC3 parcel supports a range of programs. The like-for-like rebuild of 7 units is confirmed and ministerial — available now, no hearing, RSO-exempt. Layered density pathways push the count materially higher. All new units are exempt from County rent control.
| Pathway | Total Units | Market | Affordable Required | Timeline | RSO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Like-for-Like Rebuild + 10% | 7 | 7 | None | Available now (ministerial) | Exempt |
| Like-for-Like + ADUs | 9–10 | 9–10 | None | Available now | Exempt |
| Build by Right (LCC3) | 7–8 | 7–8 | None | ~2 years | Exempt |
| By Right + 22.5% Density Bonus | 9 | 8 | 1 Very-Low-Income | ~2 years | Exempt |
| By Right + 50% Max Density Bonus | 11 | 8–9 | 2–3 Very-Low-Income | ~2 years | Exempt |
| AB 1287 Stacked Bonus (up to 100%) | 14–16 | 10–12 | VLI + Moderate tiers | ~2 years | Exempt |
| 100% Affordable (SB 423) | 17–18 | 0 | All units | ~2 years | Exempt |
Pathways per LA County post-fire rebuild guidance and California density-bonus / SB 423 law. Buyer to verify with LA County Regional Planning.
The base (ministerial) program is a rebuilt 7-unit building underwritten at market rents (RSO-exempt). This establishes the stabilized value a completed project supports.
| Stabilized Operations | Annual | Per Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Scheduled Rent [1] | $223,200 | $31,886 |
| Less: Vacancy (5%) | ($11,160) | ($1,594) |
| Effective Gross Income | $212,040 | $30,291 |
| Operating Expenses (~35%) [2] | ($74,214) | ($10,602) |
| Net Operating Income | $137,826 | $19,689 |
| Completed Value by Exit Cap | Value | Per Unit |
|---|---|---|
| 4.00% cap | $3,445,650 | $492,236 |
| 4.25% cap | $3,242,965 | $463,281 |
| 4.50% cap (base) | $3,062,800 | $437,543 |
| 4.75% cap | $2,901,600 | $414,514 |
| 5.00% cap | $2,756,520 | $393,789 |
[1] GSR: Modeled 7-unit mix — 4 × 1BR/1BA (~650 SF) at $2,400/mo and 3 × 2BR/1BA (~950 SF) at $3,000/mo. New construction; market rents from lease-up (RSO-exempt).
[2] OpEx: ~35% of EGI — taxes (reassessed at sale), insurance, utilities, R&M, management, reserves. New build carries the lowest maintenance tier.
ADU upside: Each added ADU (~$1,800–$2,000/mo) adds ~$40K–$48K of value; two ADUs could add ~$0.85M–$1.1M at a 4.50% cap.
Illustrative completed value. Not an appraisal; actual results depend on the executed program, construction cost, and market conditions at delivery.
A merchant developer's residual land value = completed value − (hard + soft + carry + profit). At current Altadena hard costs and a 4.50% exit, the 7-unit base case lands near breakeven on land — the structural reason fire-rebuild parcels clear on scarcity, replacement value, and density optionality rather than on a base-case residual alone.
| Residual Build-Up (7-Unit, 5,768 SF, 4.50% exit) | @ $325/SF Hard | @ $375/SF Hard | @ $425/SF Hard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Completed Value | $3,062,800 | $3,062,800 | $3,062,800 |
| Less: Hard Costs | ($1,874,600) | ($2,163,000) | ($2,451,400) |
| Less: Soft Costs (15% of hard) | ($281,190) | ($324,450) | ($367,710) |
| Less: Site Prep / Debris Contingency | ($75,000) | ($75,000) | ($75,000) |
| Less: Financing & Carry (~18 mo) | ($185,000) | ($185,000) | ($185,000) |
| Less: Developer Profit (12% of value) | ($367,536) | ($367,536) | ($367,536) |
| Indicated Residual Land Value | $279,474 | ($52,186) | ($383,846) |
The residual swings from ~$280K positive to negative across the cost band — confirming the 7-unit base case is, by itself, a thin merchant trade. Value above this floor is created three ways: (a) ADUs at low marginal cost, (b) the density bonus to 11 units, which spreads land and soft costs over more doors, and (c) SB 423 to 17–18 units for an affordable sponsor. Owner-rebuilders deploying insurance proceeds and long-term holders, who do not require a full merchant profit, are the natural marginal buyers — and they bid to replacement value and scarcity, which the land comps capture directly.
| Subject & Recommendation | |
|---|---|
| Lot Size | 7,840 SF (0.18 ac) |
| Zoning | LCC3 |
| Units by Right | 7 (ministerial) |
| Density Upside | 11–18 units |
| Suggested List Price | $850,000 |
| Implied Pricing Metrics | |
|---|---|
| $ / Land SF | $108.42 |
| $ / Buildable Unit (7) | $121,429 |
| $ / Unit at 11 (Density Bonus) | $77,273 |
| $ / Unit at 18 (SB 423) | $47,222 |
| Benchmarks | |
|---|---|
| Next-Door Sale (2490 Lake, Dec '25) | $115.32/SF |
| Permitted Site (2214 Windsor) | $133.01/SF |
| Permitted Site, $/unit | $115,741 |
| Subject vs Next-Door $/SF | −6.0% |
| Subject vs Windsor $/SF | −18.5% |
| Supporting Lenses | |
|---|---|
| Completed Value (7-unit, 4.50%) | $3,062,800 |
| Stabilized Value / Unit | $437,543 |
| Residual Land (@ $325/SF hard) | $279,474 |
| List as % of Completed Value | 27.8% |
| List Price | $/Land SF | $/Unit (7) | $/Unit (11 DB) | $/Unit (18 SB423) | vs 2490 Lake $/SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $750,000 | $95.66 | $107,143 | $68,182 | $41,667 | −17.0% |
| $775,000 | $98.85 | $110,714 | $70,455 | $43,056 | −14.3% |
| $800,000 | $102.04 | $114,286 | $72,727 | $44,444 | −11.5% |
| $825,000 | $105.23 | $117,857 | $75,000 | $45,833 | −8.7% |
| $850,000 | $108.42 | $121,429 | $77,273 | $47,222 | −6.0% |
| $875,000 | $111.61 | $125,000 | $79,545 | $48,611 | −3.2% |
| $900,000 | $114.80 | $128,571 | $81,818 | $50,000 | −0.5% |
| $925,000 | $117.98 | $132,143 | $84,091 | $51,389 | +2.3% |
The recommended list price of $850,000 reconciles three independent land-value lenses. On land comps, it equates to $108/land SF — a disciplined ~6% discount to the next-door 2490 Lake sale ($115/SF, Dec 2025), appropriate because the subject is ~90% larger and larger lots carry a modest per-SF discount, while its 7-unit residential rebuild rights argue the discount should be no deeper. On a per-buildable-unit basis, $121,429 per ministerial unit sits just above the fully-permitted Windsor benchmark of $115,741 — consistent, since smaller infill parcels trade higher per door than a 54-unit project, and the figure drops to an attractive $77,273 at 11 units and $47,222 under SB 423. On completed value, the price is 27.8% of a finished 7-unit building's $3.06M stabilized value, leaving room for construction and a developer return on the higher-density programs.
The price is positioned to capture the post-fire scarcity premium without over-reaching: it sits below both the next-door land trade and the permitted Windsor site on $/SF, yet monetizes the confirmed rebuild rights and density optionality that distinguish 2500 Lake from raw dirt. We would expect it to clear within a standard 60–90 day marketing window, with competitive interest from developers, owner-rebuilders, and affordable sponsors supporting upward movement toward the top of the $775K–$925K range.